The intrigue, promise and peril of Rutgers basketball’s 2023-24 campaign can be summarized in one word.

Identity.

Gone are all the foundational players who helped head coach Steve Pikiell post that breakthrough winning season in 2019-2020. This feels like a fresh chapter, with less-proven but more explosive talents who are itching to change the way the Scarlet Knights have played.

Will it add up to the program’s third NCAA Tournament appearance in Pikiell’s eighth season? After watching the program closely throughout the preseason, here is our analysis and forecast.

3 REASONS TO HOPE

1. The Man in the Middle

Senior Cliff Omoruyi is on pace to become just the third Rutgers player to record 1,000 collegiate rebounds (joining legends Phil Sellers and James Bailey) and the sixth to reach 200 career blocks. The program’s best postman in 40 years (since Roy Hinson) has been working on passing out of double teams and finding the open man, a skill that could make him that much more difficult to contend with.

2. Speed to Burn

This is the fastest Rutgers team in recent memory, Expect this group to floor the accelerator off of turnovers, loose balls and long rebounds. After years of plodding offensive pace, it should be fun to watch – and prevent what might be a streaky-shooting squad from relying too heavily on jumpers.

3. Promising Freshmen

There’s been a lot of fan and media focus on Rutgers’ blockbuster 2024 recruiting class, but don’t look past current freshmen Gavin Griffiths and Jamichael Davis. The 6-foot-8 Griffiths is a potential matchup nightmare at guard and the rocket-heeled Davis has been the preseason’s biggest revelation.

3 REASONS TO MOPE

1. Lots of New

With six new players and a new attacking style, these are uncharted waters for Pikiell, who has succeeded in the past through player development, a deliberate, grind-it-out system and team cohesion fostered over time. As such, there might be some fits and starts here. Perhaps the roller-coaster St. John’s exhibition is a microcosm of what’s to come, at least early on.

2. Getting Defensive?

Pikiell has openly expressed concern about the group’s progress toward meeting his defensive standards, particularly in the mostly new backcourt. A season-long question will be how often to press. Look for some experimentation on this front out of conference. Will they unleash it regularly in Big Ten play? Stay tuned.

3. Frontcourt Health

Senior forward and resident defensive stopper Mawot Mag is coming off an ACL tear. In practice Pikiell has been rotating six players with the first unit – Omoruyi, Griffiths, Mag, Aundre Hyatt, Noah Fernandes and Derek Simpson – perhaps as insurance until Mag (a surefire starter when healthy) is fully up to speed. Even if Mag doesn’t miss a game, his minutes will be on the conservative side as he ramps up. Backup center Emmanuel Ogbole (torn ACL) has begun participating in most of practice; it’s unclear when he’ll be ready to suit up.

5 MUST-SEE GAMES

Nov. 6 vs. Princeton in Trenton

After an unfortunate 10-year hiatus, the 121^st meeting between these age-old rivals is on, and it’s one of the sport’s most intriguing opening-night matchups. Princeton is coming off a Sweet 16 appearance and has shooters that will test Rutgers’ perimeter defense. The Tigers will try to throw the kitchen sink at Omoruyi. Great chess match.

Dec. 2 vs. No. 25 Illinois

The Big Ten opener pits Rutgers against a polar opposite: The Illini always seem to have more individual talent, but the whole rarely exceeds the parts. They were ranked fourth in the league’s preseason media poll (Rutgers checked in 10^th). Think that’ll make a bulletin board? Pikiell is 4-1 against Illinois at home, with the lone Illini win in Piscataway coming in 2018.

Dec. 9 at Seton Hall

The Scarlet Knights are 0-4 at their in-state rival since last winning in Newark in 2013, Mike’s Rice’s final season at the helm. On paper, these squads look to be evenly matched. This is one of two chances for Rutgers to nab a coveted non-conference road win for the resume. Don’t expect the Rock’s upper deck to open, no matter what the ticket demand is.

Jan. 14 at No. 4 Michigan State

Rutgers is 0-8 all-time at the Breslin Center (Pikiell is 0-7). With five out of their top six players back from a Sweet 16 squad, including a backcourt of grizzled veterans, the Spartans will pose the toughest test on the Scarlet Knights’ schedule.  

Jan. 28 vs. No. 3 Purdue

Jersey Mike’s Arena should be a Sunday afternoon madhouse in a contest that will air on Fox’s national network. As everyone knows, Rutgers has taken down the top-ranked Boilers in each of the past two seasons. Get the popcorn ready for Omoruyi bodying up against reigning National Player of the Year Zach Edey.

OUR PROJECTION

With talent, athleticism and a good deal of uncertainty, this has the makings of a highly entertaining, wildly unpredictable season on the banks. Credit Pikiell for beefing up the non-conference schedule, which could pay off in March. There are too many unknowns right now to say this is an NCAA Tournament team, but the Scarlet Knights should be in the hunt until the end. Prediction: 18-13 overall (8-3 out of conference, 10-10 Big Ten), NIT.

Jerry Carino has covered the New Jersey sports scene since 1996 and the college basketball beat since 2003. He is an Associated Press Top 25 voter. Contact him at  [email protected].